RADDATZ: OK, let me move on in the short time we have. Let me move on to the next few months. “The New York Times” this week looked back through old polls and it turned out those candidates who have led in Iowa or New Hampshire, polls with just one month to go, have lost as often as they have won.
So any predictions of a shakeup?
I want to start with you, Matt. Just look at the races and what you think we’ll see in the next couple of months.
BAI: I would never make a prediction —
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RADDATZ: He would never —
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BAI: — no, I wouldn’t, at this point —
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RADDATZ: — I want you to tell us what’s going to —
BAI: I was there, you know, in Iowa this week. I can tell you that it’s cold and I predict it will stay that way. And I think — this is a very fluid race to me still. Now maybe not. I mean, Alex and I were talking in Iowa. I think that one of the key numbers here is no matter how you divide it up, no matter where the polling’s been, 60-plus percent of the Republican electorate has identified with an extreme outsider, like a Ted Cruz or a Donald Trump or Ben Carson. And that tells you that maybe it doesn’t matter how this thing shakes out in the end, you know, the governing wing of the party, even if they congeal around a candidate, might not have the support.
But I think that’s still very fluid. I think Chris Christie’s very much in play, New Hampshire, and actually getting big crowds in Iowa. Marco Rubio’s still doing quite well. You know, I don’t think Jeb Bush and John Kasich are dead in New Hampshire and I think we’re going to see —
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RADDATZ: And you talking — you’re talking Ted Cruz.
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CASTELLANOS: — that candidate leading a month out doesn’t win, gosh, I hope that’s right about Ted Cruz in Iowa. But right now, I’d say Ted Cruz does win Iowa. There’s a chance that Donald Trump slightly underperforms because he is doing worse in early states than he is nationally. And usually it’s kind of a tell as you get closer to picking a real president, ehh, maybe he’s not the guy you want in the big chair.
So he underperforms. We go to New Hampshire. What happens there? New Hampshire looks to validate an alternative.
Who is that?
Well, right now, it’s probably Trump again. But that’s the opening for an establishment candidate; I think Rubio is capped by Christie.
What does that mean?
Christie’s got — by Cruz. Christie’s got a lane. If Christie can gel in New Hampshire, that could be the three-way race you’re —
RADDATZ: Well, Rubio had a lot of media energy this week, emerging as the establishment candidate to beat or as “Politico” put it, “establishment rivals rip into Rubio,” but some reality checks to you.
Had David Axelrod tweeting, “But where does he win?”
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STEWART: So the key is —
RADDATZ: Where does Rubio win?
STEWART: — the key is Iowa is so important. But as you say, the last at least two cycles we’ve had, the winner of Iowa, who I worked for in the caucuses, did not go onto win the nomination.
The key is having a strong organization and ground game in Iowa but executing the same plan in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and through the early states.
And racking up that magic 1,237 delegates needed in order to become the nominee. And I see that happening with the candidate who has strong ground game in Iowa, New Hampshire, all through the SEC states and showing that they’re able to be in this for the long haul, which means organization on the ground and the money to maintain as well an air campaign.
And right now I see that between the top three —
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RADDATZ: — let’s hit the Democrats, first Sanders —
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RADDATZ: — Martin O’Malley.
JONES: You talked about the person we always talk about, Donald Trump. Let’s talk about the person we never talk about, we just heard from.
Bernie Sanders has incredible momentum. He’s had almost a media blackout. We — I mean, he’s almost never the subject of the main conversation. But out in the country, you see a lot of Bernie Sanders support. He got more contributions, individual donors, than anybody in American history. That by itself lets you know something’s going on.
I think he’s going to win Iowa. He may win New Hampshire. And —
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RADDATZ: — not afraid —
JONES: I’m not afraid — listen, I love Hillary Clinton. She will be our nominee. But there is something happening in this party that — and when you combine the authenticity of a Bernie Sanders with the popularity of his agenda.
You don’t like his agenda, there’s — being tough on Wall Street, very popular, across the board in America.
RADDATZ: OK. We’ll have a bit more of you guys later.
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